• The likely outcomes of war in Venezuela.

In a sordid slime harmonious Greed was born in yonder ditch,
With a longing in his bosom—and for others’ goods an itch.
As Christ died to make men holy, let men die to make us rich—
Our god is marching on.

The Battle Hymn of the Republic, Updated
~ Mark Twain

Fortunately, fears that President Donald Trump, in his address to the nation tonight, would announce a war with Venezuela were unrealized. At some point, though, that war will come.

I spoke last week with Judge Andrew Napolitano as to the likely results of an American regime change war against Venezuela. As the title of this post says, there are no best-case scenarios. From 12/9/25 on Judging Freedom:

[Does Venezuela pose a threat to American national security?]

Well, there’s nothing Judge that creates a threat to American national security. The threat to American national security is the presence of our own forces there, creating the possibility of a failed state in Venezuela that would cause repercussions throughout the Western Hemisphere through instability, chaos, emboldening other organizations to try and overthrow their governments.

So, the national security implications come from our own actions. They come not from anything the Venezuelan state is doing.

The Venezuelan state, you know, is pathetic. What threat can it pose to the United States? It could barely pose threats to its neighbors. It’s a state that is not failed, but it’s collapsing; primarily due to American sanctions - I think 12 rounds of sanctions since 2005, 5 American coup attempts since 2002, if we’re keeping score. So, the presence of this American fleet that’s there, that is too small to carry out an Iraq or an Afghanistan style invasion, is the right size to carry out a Libya style operation.

The idea being is that the Americans will provide the airstrikes, the drone strikes, they could provide the commando raids, they’d have the cash to pay mercenaries and militia groups, and would be to create the circumstances for opposition groups in Venezuela to depose Maduro and to take his place. And if anyone thinks that’s going to go well, you know, I need to know which history books you’ve been reading because I can’t find evidence of where something like that goes smoothly.

I mean, best-case is you have…there is no best-case.

I’m trying to come up with some way Judge, a military action against Venezuela wouldn’t end up with different scenarios that all lead to not just great instability, civil war and suffering for 30 million Venezuelans, but could lead to great instability, suffering, chaos, war throughout the continent; just as American military actions in Vietnam, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Libya have all done.

We can go through different scenarios. If Maduro is deposed and the opposition groups led by Gonzalez and Machado take power. Well, what about the pretty large element of the population that are Maduro backers, that are Maduro supporters, that have been usurped?

Do you think anyone think they’re going to sit quietly? So, even if you have a smooth regime change, you run into the issue that those who’ve been usurped are now going to fight to regain their lost power.

If Maduro falls and Machado and Gonzalez and the opposition can’t take power, well, then you have a civil war.

And if Maduro doesn’t fall, which is just as likely as all these other options, then you have a Maduro regime seeking vengeance, trying to repress those who tried to overthrow him, who took part in this treasonous act.

No scenarios bring about any degree of stability, bring about any degree of anything benevolent or beneficial, I should say, to the Venezuelan people. So, everything we game out, what can occur here with US military acts in Venezuela, it all ends up that they are different routes to the same place. Disruption, dismay, repression, possibly violence, suffering and civil war in Venezuela.

Of course, the great danger that it would expand beyond Venezuela’s borders, which you already have American officials saying such a thing. You have people like Machado saying, that the goal is to go from Venezuela to Nicaragua to Cuba. And you can imagine these various groups throughout the region that are out of power, seeing as their best way to get into power is to show the Americans that they’re worthy of their support or believing that if we stage a coup here, we stage an uprising, the Americans will come and back us just as they did in Venezuela. I mean, so we’re really looking at a situation where Venezuela and military action there could ignite the whole region into not just instability, but into war.

(Transcript was auto-generated and edited for clarity.)

There is another scenario I failed to describe to Judge Nap, one that is similar to the 1991-2003 US policy towards Iraq. In this scenario, the sanctions are intensified, the country is blockaded, there is a no-fly zone (Iraq had two), and the US regularly attacks Venezuela as it did Iraq, near-weekly, sometimes daily, for 12 years.

It’s hard to see how such a policy akin to the 1991-2003 Iraq “containment policy” wouldn’t lead to an eventual total war against Venezuela, regardless of the presidents that succeed Donald Trump. That’s what imperial presidents do. Bill Clinton continued George H.W. Bush’s war against Iraq, culminating in W. Bush’s invasion. Barack Obama escalated W. Bush’s war in Afghanistan, which itself was a continuation of the Carter-Reagan-Bush proxy war in Afghanistan against the Soviets. Trump carried on with Obama’s dirty war in Syria and escalated the tensions in Ukraine. The inertia of the empire is stronger than any single president.

The common refrain is that war is a breeding ground of unintended consequences. It is greater than that. War is a super-human force that will make an agent of those who foolishly and recklessly believe in their own agency. That truth will be revealed again in the coming war in Venezuela.

The last two years, I have been affected by the intersection of the Massacre of the Innocents with the genocide in Gaza. It is the story of the Holy Family’s flight to Egypt, their lives as refugees and as strangers in a foreign land, and the persecution of refugees and immigrants in our land today that possesses me this Christmas season.

I don’t have any thoughts on how to end this post other than posting this:

Insert graphic: Library of Congress

Illustration shows Uncle Sam holding a large magnifying glass labeled "National Vanity" which he is using to examine a battleship flying an American flag labeled "U.S. Navy". He is also holding papers labeled "Monroe Doctrine".

Keppler, Udo J., Artist. Magnified security / K. , 1908. N.Y.: J. Ottmann Lith. Co., Puck Bldg., May 6. Photograph. https://www.loc.gov/item/2011647304/.

Background graphic: US Southern Command